Introduction

This report analyzes the relationship between GDP per capita and CO2 emissions per capita across countries for the year 2022. Both metrics are expressed on a per person basis, allowing us to compare economic output and carbon emissions at the individual level across different countries. The analysis includes world map visualizations of both per capita indicators and an examination of their correlation.

Background & Context

The early 2020s mark a critical period in global economic development and environmental consciousness. The year 2022 provides a particularly interesting snapshot for analyzing the relationship between per person economic prosperity and environmental impact for several reasons:

Historical Context

  • Post-COVID Economic Recovery: By 2022, many nations were recovering from the economic impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic, which had disrupted global economic patterns and temporarily reduced emissions.

  • Climate Action Era: This period occurs amid growing climate change concerns and international agreements like the Paris Climate Accord, with many countries having established emissions reduction targets.

  • Energy Transition: Many economies were actively transitioning toward renewable energy sources and implementing decarbonization strategies.

Economic Development Patterns

In 2022, global economic development was characterized by:

  • Advanced Economies: Countries in North America, Western Europe, East Asia, and parts of Oceania with developed service-oriented and knowledge-based economies, typically showing high GDP per capita.

  • Emerging Economies: Rapidly industrializing nations with growing middle classes in regions like East Asia, Southeast Asia, and parts of Latin America, with moderate GDP per capita.

  • Developing Nations: Countries in various stages of development across Africa, South Asia, and other regions still building industrial capacity, often with lower GDP per capita.

Energy & Emissions Context

The global energy landscape in 2022 featured:

  • Energy Mix Diversification: While fossil fuels remained dominant globally, renewable energy had gained significant market share.

  • Technology Advances: Energy efficiency technologies and renewable energy solutions had become more affordable and widely deployed.

  • Policy Frameworks: Many countries had implemented carbon pricing, emissions regulations, and clean energy incentives.

This background provides essential context for interpreting the relationship between per capita economic prosperity and per capita carbon emissions in our contemporary world.

Data Loading and Preparation

GDP Per Capita World Map (2022)

CO2 Emissions Per Capita World Map (2022)

Relationship Between Per Capita GDP and Per Capita CO2 Emissions

Interpretation

The scatterplot reveals a strong positive correlation (r = 0.725) between GDP per capita (economic output per person) and CO2 emissions per capita (carbon emissions per person) across the 81 countries with complete data in 2022. This indicates that countries with higher per-person economic output generally tend to have higher per-person carbon emissions.

Economic-Environmental Relationship in 2022

Our analysis of these per capita measures shows the following factual observations:

  • Quantified Per Capita Relationship: We observe a correlation coefficient of 0.725, indicating that approximately 53% of the variance in CO2 emissions per capita can be statistically explained by GDP per capita (r² = 0.53).

  • Logarithmic Scale: The relationship appears more linear when per capita GDP is presented on a logarithmic scale, suggesting that per-person emissions increase more slowly at higher income levels than at lower ones.

  • Country Distribution: Countries are distributed across a wide range of both per capita GDP levels ($365 to $9,560 per person) and per capita emissions levels (0.026 to 5.76 metric tons per person).

Regional Patterns

The world map visualizations reveal several geographic patterns in the per capita metrics:

  • Geographic Variation: Both GDP per capita and CO2 emissions per capita show clear geographic patterns, with generally higher values in North America, Europe, and parts of East Asia.

  • Data Coverage: Our 2022 analysis includes comprehensive per capita data from 81 countries across different regions and development levels.

  • Visible Outliers: Some countries deviate from the general pattern, showing either higher-than-expected or lower-than-expected per capita emissions relative to their per capita GDP.

Historical Context

When comparing our 2022 per capita results with our sensitivity analysis:

  • Current Per Capita Correlation: The 2022 correlation between the per capita measures (0.725) is higher than the 50-year average (0.627), but within the historical range (0.479 to 0.755).

  • Data Considerations: While earlier years have more complete per capita data coverage, the 81 countries in our 2022 sample provide sufficient data points for a robust analysis of the relationship between per capita measures.

  • Consistency: The persistent correlation between these per capita measures across five decades suggests the relationship between per-person economic activity and per-person emissions remains a fundamental characteristic of current economic systems.

This analysis provides a factual basis for understanding the contemporary relationship between per capita economic prosperity and per capita carbon emissions. The data shows that despite changes in technologies, energy systems, and policies over time, a strong statistical relationship between per-person GDP and per-person CO2 emissions persists in the most recent data available.

Annex: Sensitivity Analysis (1972-2022)

To validate our focus on 2022 data, we conducted a 50-year sensitivity analysis examining the relationship between GDP per capita and CO2 emissions per capita across countries from 1972 to 2022.

Data Coverage Over Time

The graph above shows the number of countries with available data for both GDP per capita and CO2 emissions per capita across the 50-year period. While earlier years tend to have more complete data coverage (up to 137 countries in 1972), recent years including 2022 still maintain sufficient coverage for robust analysis (81 countries in 2022).

Correlation Stability Over Time

The correlation coefficient between per person GDP and per person CO2 emissions has remained remarkably consistent over the past 50 years. Key observations include:

  • Average correlation: 0.627 (range: 0.479 to 0.755)
  • 2022 correlation: 0.725
  • Stability: Despite fluctuations, the relationship between these per capita measures has maintained a moderate to strong positive correlation throughout the period
  • Recent trend: The correlation between per capita GDP and per capita CO2 in 2022 (0.725) is above the 50-year average, suggesting the relationship remains robust in contemporary data

Summary Table: Correlation by Decade

GDP Per Capita to CO2 Per Capita Relationship by Decade
Decade Average Correlation between Per Capita Measures Average Countries Min Correlation Max Correlation
1970 0.645 131 0.584 0.692
1980 0.566 121 0.479 0.608
1990 0.615 118 0.563 0.661
2000 0.590 103 0.553 0.638
2010 0.690 84 0.585 0.755
2020 0.736 82 0.725 0.752

Conclusion

This sensitivity analysis demonstrates that while the number of countries with available per capita data has decreased over time (particularly since the 1970s), the fundamental relationship between GDP per capita and CO2 emissions per capita has remained stable. The correlation coefficient between these per capita measures in 2022 (r = 0.725) falls well within the historical range and is slightly above the 50-year average.

The stability of this relationship between per person measures over five decades gives us confidence that our 2022-focused analysis accurately captures the enduring connection between per capita economic prosperity and per capita carbon emissions. While data coverage in 2022 (81 countries) is lower than in earlier decades, it provides a sufficient and representative sample for analyzing this relationship between per capita metrics.

Moreover, using the most recent available data (2022) ensures our analysis reflects the current global context, including modern energy systems, contemporary climate policies, and recent economic developments. This makes our findings more relevant for current policy discussions despite the trade-off in data coverage.